Employment FAQs

Breaking it down Further

Unemployment FAQs

State-us Update

• The current economic focus on tariffs usually revolves around industries, but the effects of tariffs will undoubtedly have a geographic pattern as states have different concentrations of industries.  The 2nd quarter employment changes in states and regions may illustrate this more fully if the tariff policies remain in place the entire time.
  

  Stock Up: 

• Mining and Logging Sector: In the first quarter of 2025, we've seen the mining and logging sector surge, adding one billion jobs. Specifically, the oil & gas extraction (+300,000) and the coal mining (+200,000) industries saw the largest increase in job openings since the new administration took office. This is the result of the administration large investment to maximize the use of the country's domestic resources, such as coal and oil. We can expect to see a steady increase in the coming months as well. [Example Headline & Text]
  
  
• Manufacturing: The manufacturing sector (+600,000) significantly increased in Q1 2025 due to the recent rise in companies continueing to invest in manufacturing their goods in the US. The semiconductor and electronic components (+500,000) industry saw the largest increase in jobs due to the high tariffs placed on China. Wood products (+35,000) also saw a substantial rise as a result of recent research that shows wooden products are vastly superiors to metal ones. [Example Headline & Text]

• Leisure & Hospitality: Employment in Leisure & Hospitality (+70,000) increased sharply in the first quarter. Food services and drinking places (restaurants and bars) continues its run of strong hiring, making up 28,900 jobs created in Leisure & Hospitality for Q1. This is due to XYZ. [Example Headline & Text]

Stock Down: 

• Government Sector: The administration's initial actions to reduce the size of the federal workforce resulted in the loss of 12,000 jobs during the first quarter. While it is uncertain whether this pace of cuts will continue in the foreseeable future, there is potential for more employees to accept buyout agreements. Additionally, the administration has suggested the possibility of closing down operations of the Department of Education that are not explicitly mandated by federal law. [Can you add in more data/detail about the job losses so it's different from Labor Market Overview Section]
  
  
• The Retail Sector: The retail sector appears to be reacting swiftly to the current tariff environment, with retail trade experiencing a 12.5% drop (approximately 80,000) in job openings during the first quarter. It is atypical for price increases resulting from supply disruptions to affect retail job openings before impacting manufacturing jobs; however, this scenario is plausible. [Can you add in more data/detail about the job losses so it's different from Labor Market Overview Section]

• Construction Sector: Similar to the retail sector, construction saw a sharp decline in job openings (-800,000) due to the current tariff environment. As the cost of materials continues to grow, we can expect construction to slow down in the U.S., which could result in the loss of even more jobs.  [Example Headline & Text]

Breaking it Down Further

The tariffs introduced at the beginning of the quarter have not had the detrimental impact that was initially feared. Several factors contribute to this. Mainly, the harshest tariffs were either canceled or delayed, prompting companies in trade-sensitive industries to prepare for the policy change by stockpiling intermediate goods and inputs, along with implementing other protective measures to insulate themselves. Despite the imposition of new or increased tariffs—particularly on Chinese imports and select industrial goods—employment levels within these sectors have remained relatively stable. This suggests that, so far, companies have either absorbed increased input costs, relied on diversified supply chains, or passed on limited costs to consumers without significantly altering their hiring practices.

The partial tariff removals over the last three months and the resilient behavior of key industries do not necessarily indicate that the labor market has successfully moved past this issue. Tariff policies may take longer to affect the labor market than anticipated, meaning the tariff policy changes that were taken earlier in the year are now working their way through the system. It may require longer-lasting price increases that lead households to pull back on spending before the labor market falters. The June consumer price index reading indicates that might be occurring with inflation 0.3% which outpaced wage gains. Additionally, these policy adjustments are not a disavowal of tariffs. They are short-term relief actions with the live possibility that the policies could be returned and even ratcheted up at a later date. 

A cooldown in Private Education & Health Services was expected, although the exact timing remained uncertain. This sector, along with the government sector, contributed notably to the job growth in 2024. Both rely heavily on public sector spending, but while federal government layoffs were announced and therefore easier to predict, the reaction of the education and health industries to new policies was harder to pin down on a quarterly basis. Historically, these two sectors have accounted for 25% of all employment growth, and in the second quarter, they may be gradually returning to that former level.    

The U.S. labor market continues to show surprising durability in the face of policy uncertainty and shifting economic conditions. While risks related to tariffs, inflation, and sector-specific slowdowns remain, the steady pace of job creation gives us hope the labor market is in transition rather than retreat. As the second half of the year unfolds, attention will center on whether price increases creep their way into employment and real wage growth.