Economist Corner

Employment 

• Our Expectations: The forecast shows employment growth in December will be lighter than in November. However, several factors may influence the results more than usual. One significant factor is the ongoing economic recovery from the Hurricanes this fall. Additionally, the December survey period will be the first one entirely after the November election. The initial reaction to the outcome by some policy-sensitive industries may be evident in the jobs report. 
  
  
• Diving in: Private Education & Health Services and the Public sectors in November maintained the high growth we have seen over the last year. While Education & Health Services look to remain the primary job generators in the labor market heading into next year, the Public sector may see some diminishment at the Federal level with the incoming administration’s call to cut discretionary spending.

Unemployment Outlook 

• Here's the Scoop: The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country, rose to 7.8% in November. The U-3 unemployment rate, which indicates only the number of unemployed people actively seeking a job, increased to 4.2%.
  
  
• What Does This Mean?: An increasing unemployment rate (both U-3 & U-6) with a declining labor force participation rate is a worrying combination. This trend indicates that some individuals who were previously looking for work have become discouraged and stopped. Additionally, those who have remained in the labor force are finding it more difficult to be employed. This may be another symptom of the hurricanes as some workers who initially declared temporary unemployment later permanently left their jobs, and may not have begun searching for new jobs yet.