Econ Corner Title Graphics - November 2024

U.S. employment is expected to increase by 166,000 jobs in November

KEY TAKEAWAY: Employment growth in the U.S. is expected to rebound somewhat in November 2024 as recovery continues in the Southeast after Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Just as it was difficult to fully predict the drag on the labor market from these events, it will also be challenging to project the rebound effect over the next couple of months. Despite this lack of clarity, Geographic Solutions is forecasting 166,000 jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.2%. 
LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW (1)-1
Employment Forecast - November 2024
Unemployment Forecast - November 2024

Employment 

  • Our Expectations: Expectations are wide open for November due to the storms’ fallout. However, we do anticipate employment to be stronger than the monthly average performance since June. Economy watchers will have to wait until next year to see where the labor market might be heading after a confusing couple of months. 

  • Diving in: While the October weather events will artificially lift employment in November, it will also suppress wage growth in the same survey. This typically happens, because lower wage workers were more likely to lose then regain their jobs in this situation which leaves the average wages during the recovery period lower.

 

Unemployment Outlook 

  • Here's the Scoop: The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country, remained at 7.7% in October. The U-3 unemployment rate, which indicates only the number of unemployed people actively seeking a job, remained at 4.1%. 

  • What Does This Mean?: The unemployment rate will be less impacted by the hurricanes than employment and wage data, because it excludes people who are temporarily unemployed for weather-related reasons. Therefore, no rebound effect is expected. The rise forecasted for the month of November is consistent with the recent upward trend in the unemployment rate. 

Key Indicators 

  • What We're Watching: The factors determining the predicted job creation and unemployment rate are below. They include the number of monthly job openings, average job salaries, job searchers, and the number of unemployment claims applications. This data from Geographic Solutions during the November survey period shows the following:

_2024 November Econ Corner Key Indicator Graphic

Analyzing these figures normally helps to paint a clearer picture of what to expect from the upcoming labor market report. While still helpful, the distortions in October as well as the bounce-back effects in the next couple of months temporarily diminish the association of these economic indicators with the labor market report.  

 

Employment & Unemployment Forecast

Will the US labor market continue to grow in the coming months? If so, what’s causing this recent growth?

Yes. Although job growth will be slow, recent employment gains coupled with an uptick in labor force participation rate seem to be enough to maintain positive forward momentum.  

 

How will the surging labor market impact the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates?

The large job growth seen over the last year gives the Federal Reserve room to maintain or raise rates without pushing the economy into a recession.

Despite the recent growth of jobs, why is the labor market still tight?

The labor market may give the appearance of being tight to some, but here's why it's not.  Typically a tight labor market means that the unemployment rate maintains a low rate after a period of decline, job growth slows, and wage growth picks up. Recent growth in jobs contradicts that we're in a tight labor market.

Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, searchers, and employment and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).

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