U.S. Employment increases by 227,000 jobs in November
KEY TAKEAWAY: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) most recent report, employment in the U.S. increased by 227,000 in November 2024, enhanced by the recovery after Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the Southeast. The unemployment rate nudged up to 4.2%.
Employment
In Brief: October’s largest payroll losses were in the Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services sectors. Professional & Business Services fully recovered its loss in November (+3,000 over the last two months), but Manufacturing will have a longer path to regaining its jobs (-26,000 over the same period).
The Big Picture: Private Education & Health Services and the Public sectors in November maintained the high growth we have seen over the last year and look to remain the primary job generators in the labor market heading into next year.
Unemployment
In Brief: The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country, rose to 7.8% in November. The U-3 unemployment rate, which indicates only the number of unemployed people actively seeking a job, increased to 4.2%.
What Does This Mean?: An increasing unemployment rate (both U-3 & U-6) with a declining labor force participation rate is a worrying combination. It indicates that some who were previously looking for work have become discouraged and stopped, but even those who have remained in the labor force are finding it more difficult to be employed. This may be another symptom of the hurricanes as those who previously declared temporary unemployment later permanently left their jobs, and some of them may not have begun searching for new jobs yet.
The employment numbers above reflect the seasonally adjusted, monthly change in non-farm jobs.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is currently without a job. The national unemployment rate has remained steady throughout 2023 and now into 2024, fluctuating between 3.7% and 4.1%.
U-3 unemployment rate is the most commonly reported rate in the United States, representing the number of unemployed people actively seeking a job. The U-6 rate covers discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country.
The labor force participation rate is an estimate of an economy’s active workforce. YTD the U.S. labor force participation rate ranged between a low of 62.5% and a high of 62.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How We Matched Up
Geographic Solutions: Geographic Solutions' expectations of 166,000 jobs were short of the 227,000 jobs added in November. The unemployment rate expectation of 4.2% was on target.
The Wall Street Journal: The Wall Street Journal's expectation of 214,000 jobs being added to the labor market was slightly below what was recorded in the labor market report. The unemployment rate forecast of 4.2% matched the result.
ADP: According to ADP’s latest estimate, the private sector added 146,000 jobs in November, compared to the 194,000 reported by the BLS.
Key Takeaway: While Private Education & Health Services added the highest number of jobs in November (79,000) it was about even with its average job growth over the previous 12 months (73,000). The best performances compared to their recent histories were in Leisure & Hospitality (53,000), outperforming its 12-month average by 33,000.
Here’s Why: Employment in home health services increased sharply in November. Food services and drinking places (restaurants and bars) continues its run of strong hiring, making up 28,900 jobs created in Leisure & Hospitality for November.
Stock Down: Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
Key Takeaway: The Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Sector was down this past month with 23,000 jobs lost. No other sectors suffered significant job loss.
Here’s Why: Job declines within the sector were most severe in Department Stores and Supercenters (-15,000).
Will job creation remain robust over the coming months?
Based on the numbers from the latest report, we anticipate employment growth will slow down but will continue to add jobs at a slower pace in the coming months. This indicates that businesses are still looking to expand but more gradually.
Do workers or employers have more power in the labor market?
Neither side has a definitive upper hand, but it appears that the decline in unfilled job openings is giving employers more influence in the job market.
How has the labor market shifted since March 2023?
The labor market has continued to add jobs without slowing down despite widespread expectations of a recession.
Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, searchers, and employment and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
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.gif?width=406&height=122&name=_Econ%20Corner%20%20-%20November%202024%20(2).gif "November 2024 Labor Participation Rate")
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.gif "Employment by Industry - Leisure & Hospitality November 2024")
.gif "Employment by Industry - Trade, Transporation, & Utilities November 2024")
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